000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140913
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jun 14 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, andfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The followinginformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Central America Heavy Rainfall Event: A Central American Gyre (CAG) is rapidly developing. Heavy rainfall is already occurring.The persistent moist onshore flow over portions of Guatemala, Chiapas, Honduras, and El Salvador will favor days of intermittent rounds of heavy precipitation through the weekend. Excessive rainfall is also expected over Costa Rica and Panamatoday through Sunday, producing 8-12 inches of rain across theseareas. This scenario is common during the developing of La Nina.Please refer to your local meteorological office bulletins for more detailed information.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 15N94W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 16N103W to 06N118W. The ITCZ extends from 06N118W to 10N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 16N between 78W and 110W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A 1030 mb high pressure is centered well NE of the area near36N141W and extends a ridge SE across the Baja California offshore waters. The pressure gradient between this high andlower pressure over Mexico is causing moderate to fresh windsacross the Baja California offshore waters north of Cabo SanLazaro. South of Cabo San Lazaro, gentle to moderate windsprevail. Seas range 5 to 7 ft within NW swell across the region.In the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate, withlocally fresh winds likely occurring in the northern Gulf. Seasrange 2 to 4 ft. Gentle winds prevail over the SW Mexico offshorewaters with seas 4 to 5 ft within SW swell. Across the southernMexico offshore waters, the monsoon trough has lifted northaround 16N, bringing moderate to locally fresh winds. Seas are 6to 8 ft. Thunderstorms are also occurring in this area, which arecapable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds. Across most of the Mexico offshore waters, smoke from agricultural firesmay be restricting visibility somewhat over area waters.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will persist across the Baja California offshore waters through early next week. NW swell will also move across the Baja California Norte offshore waters, with seas building 8 to 11 ft through the weekend and into early next week north of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas are expected to peak north of Punta Eugenia on Mon. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow development is possible this weekend and early next week while the system moves slowly ESE andinteracts with a broader circulation that is forecast to developoffshore of southern Mexico and Central America. This system hasa low chance of formation over the next 7 days.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Refer to the section above for details on the developing CentralAmerican Gyre.
With the monsoon trough displaced farther north than usual, thisis bringing moderate to fresh winds across the Central Americaand Colombia offshore waters. Some areas are experiencing strongto near gale-force winds where the stronger thunderstorms arelocated. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in S to SW swell. In the Ecuador andGalapagos Island offshore waters, winds are gentle to moderate with 4 to 5 ft seas within SW swell.
For the forecast, an increase in winds, rough seas and widespread showers and thunderstorms will dominate the area this weekend. A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundredmiles SW of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow development is possible this weekend and early next week while the system moves slowly ESE andinteracts with a broader circulation that is forecast to developoffshore of southern Mexico and Central America. This system hasa low chance of formation in the next 7 days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected to impact Central Americathrough the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will shift to the Gulf of Panama tonight into Sat with rough seas. By Sun, these conditions are expected to develop across the offshore waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua. Meanwhile, seas are expected to build to 8 ft near the Galapagos Islands through the weekend.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Broad ridging dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoontrough, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure near 37N141W. Gentleto moderate winds prevail across waters W of 110W. Seas are 5 to8 ft. To the east of 110W, moderate to locally fresh winds arenoted from the monsoon trough around 15N to 05N. Seas are 8 to 10ft near the stronger winds. Elsewhere, seas range 5 to 7 ft.
For the forecast, strengthening high pressure centered NW of thearea will dominate waters west of 120W into the weekend. Fresh tostrong winds from the California Channel Islands southward arelikely to dip south of 30N at times this weekend into early nextweek. Seas will build to 8 to 12 ft by Sun night into Mon. SW flow south of the monsoon trough is forecast to be fresh today between 90W and 110W, supporting seas of 7 to 10 ft. Similar winds and seas are likely to return there by the end of the weekend into early next week. Thunderstorms will persist near themonsoon trough and east of 110W or so through the next couple ofdays. Seas to 8 ft will hover around 03S near the GalapagosIslands through the weekend.
$$AReinhart
